Cybercrime is moving through a major reset as the ransomware world shifts away from big, organized cartels and toward smaller, more volatile splinter groups. Speaking at Infosecurity Europe 2026, William Lyne, Head of Economic and Cybercrime at the Metropolitan Police Service, said the underground market has become a highly accessible ecosystem where criminals can buy tools, services, and stolen data with ease. He described it as a place where threat actors can get almost everything they need, except a good drink.
The biggest driver behind this change is convenience. Cryptocurrencies have removed one of the oldest bottlenecks in cybercrime by making it much easier to cash out illegal profits, while underground marketplaces now provide ransomware kits, phishing services, infrastructure, and support on demand. That lower barrier to entry has blurred the old lines between hacktivists, criminal gangs, and state-linked actors, creating a blended threat environment that is far more crowded and harder to police.
Lyne warned that law enforcement crackdowns are also reshaping the market. When large, centralized groups such as LockBit are disrupted, their affiliates do not disappear; they scatter into smaller factions, each trying to rebuild revenue streams in a less visible way. The result is a more fragmented and “post-trust” criminal scene, where weaker internal controls and looser coordination can make attackers more aggressive, reckless, and unpredictable.
The threat is also becoming more global. Lyne said the ransomware ecosystem is no longer dominated by traditional Russian-speaking hubs, with actors now emerging from Brazil, Türkiye, and English-speaking groups such as Scattered Spider. At the same time, criminals are increasingly using AI to search through hoarded corporate data, turning old thefts into fresh extortion opportunities and new monetization schemes.
For police and security teams, the response must go beyond arrests alone. Lyne said the Met Police cannot “arrest its way out” of the problem and instead needs to focus on disrupting infrastructure, weakening trust inside criminal networks, and working more closely with private-sector defenders. In practical terms, that means security teams should expect a ransomware landscape that is smaller in structure but sharper in impact, where fragmented gangs may strike faster and with fewer rules than the cartels they replaced.
