State-sponsored Activities 

In the year 2022, we witnessed a number of state-sponsored cyber activities originating from different countries wherein the tactics employed by the threat actors varied. Apparently, this will continue into 2023, since government uses its cyber capabilities as a means of achieving its economic and political objectives. 

Russian Cyber Activity will be Split between Targeting Ukraine and Advancing its Broader Intelligence Goals 

It can be anticipated that more conflict-related cyber activities will eventually increase since there is no immediate prospect of an end to the conflict in Ukraine. These activities will be aimed at degrading Ukraine's vital infrastructure and government services and gathering foreign intelligence, useful to the Russian government, from entities involved in the war effort. 

Additionally, organizations linked to the Russian intelligence services will keep focusing their disinformation campaigns, intelligence gathering, and potentially low-intensity disruptive attacks on their geographical neighbors. 

Although Russia too will keep working toward its longer-term, more comprehensive intelligence goals. The traditional targets of espionage will still be a priority. For instance, in August 2022, Russian intelligence services used spear phishing emails to target employees of the US's Argonne and Brookhaven national laboratories, which conduct cutting-edge energy research. 

It is further expected that new information regarding the large-scale covert intelligence gathering by Russian state-sponsored threat actors, enabled by their use of cloud environments, internet backbone technology, or pervasive identity management systems, will come to light. 

China Will Continue to Prioritize Political and Economic Cyber Espionage 

It has also been anticipated that the economic and political objectives will continue to drive the operation of China’s intelligence-gathering activities. 

The newly re-elected president Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party will continue to employ its intelligence infrastructure to assist in achieving more general economic and social goals. It will also continue to target international NGOs in order to look over dissident organizations and individuals opposing the Chinese government in any way. 

China-based threat actors will also be targeting high-tech company giants that operate in or supply industries like energy, manufacturing, housing, and natural resources as it looks forward to upgrading the industries internally. 

Iranian Government-backed Conflicts and Cybercrimes will Overlap 

The way in which the Iranian intelligence services outsource operations to security firms in Iran has resulted in the muddled difference between state-sponsored activity and cybercrime. 

We have witnessed a recent incident regarding the same with the IRGC-affiliated COBALT MIRAGE threat group, which performs cyber espionage but also financially supports ransomware attacks. Because cybercrime is inherently opportunistic, it has affected and will continue to affect enterprises of all types and sizes around the world. 

Moreover, low-intensity conflicts between Iran and its adversaries in the area, mainly Israel, will persist. Operations carried out under the guise of hacktivism and cybercrime will be designed to interfere with crucial infrastructure, disclose private data, and reveal agents of foreign intelligence. 

How Can Organizations Protect Themselves from Opportunistic Cybercrime?

The recent global cyber activities indicate that opportunistic cybercrime threats will continue to pose a challenge to organizational operations. 

Organizations are also working on defending themselves from these activities by prioritizing security measures, since incidents as such generally occur due to a failure or lack of security controls. 

We have listed below some of the security measures organizations may follow in order to combat opportunistic cybercrime against nations, states, and cybercrime groups : 

• Organizations can mitigate threats by investing in fundamental security controls like asset management, patching, multi-factor authentication, and network monitoring. 
• Maintaining a strong understanding of the threat landscape and tactics utilized by adversaries. Security teams must also identify and safeguard their key assets, along with prioritizing vulnerability management. 
• Traditional methods and solutions, such as endpoint detection and response, are no longer effective in thwarting today's attacks, so it is crucial to thoroughly monitor the entire network, from endpoints to cloud assets. However, in order to identify and effectively address their most significant business concerns, and prioritize threats in order to combat them more efficiently.