This shift coincides with a change in strategy among major US firms. OpenAI, which initially emphasized transparency, moved toward a more closed and proprietary approach from 2022 onward. As access to US-developed models became more restricted, Chinese companies and research institutions expanded the availability of open-weight alternatives. A recent report from Stanford University’s Human-Centered AI Institute argues that AI leadership today depends not only on proprietary breakthroughs but also on reach, adoption, and the global influence of open models.
According to the report, Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen family and systems from DeepSeek now perform at near state-of-the-art levels across major benchmarks. Researchers found these models to be statistically comparable to Anthropic’s Claude family and increasingly close to the most advanced offerings from OpenAI and Google. Independent indices, including LMArena and the Epoch Capabilities Index, show steady convergence rather than a clear performance divide between Chinese and US models.
Adoption trends further highlight this shift. Chinese models now dominate downstream usage on platforms such as Hugging Face, where developers share and adapt AI systems. By September 2025, Chinese fine-tuned or derivative models accounted for more than 60 percent of new releases on the platform. During the same period, Alibaba’s Qwen surpassed Meta’s Llama family to become the most downloaded large language model ecosystem, indicating strong global uptake beyond research settings.
This momentum is reinforced by a broader diffusion effect. As Meta reduces its role as a primary open-source AI provider and moves closer to a closed model, Chinese firms are filling the gap with freely available, high-performing systems. Stanford researchers note that developers in low- and middle-income countries are particularly likely to adopt Chinese models as an affordable alternative to building AI infrastructure from scratch. However, adoption is not limited to emerging markets, as US companies are also increasingly integrating Chinese open-weight models into products and workflows.
Paradoxically, US export restrictions limiting China’s access to advanced chips may have accelerated this progress. Constrained hardware access forced Chinese labs to focus on efficiency, resulting in models that deliver competitive performance with fewer resources. Researchers argue that this discipline has translated into meaningful technological gains.
Openness has played a critical role. While open-weight models do not disclose full training datasets, they offer significantly more flexibility than closed APIs. Chinese firms have begun releasing models under permissive licenses such as Apache 2.0 and MIT, allowing broad use and modification. Even companies that once favored proprietary approaches, including Baidu, have reversed course by releasing model weights.
Despite these advances, risks remain. Open-weight access does not fully resolve concerns about state influence, and many users rely on hosted services where data may fall under Chinese jurisdiction. Safety is another concern, as some evaluations suggest Chinese models may be more susceptible to jailbreaking than US counterparts.
Even with these caveats, the broader trend is clear. As performance converges and openness drives adoption, the dominance of US commercial AI providers is no longer assured. The Stanford report suggests China’s role in global AI will continue to expand, potentially reshaping access, governance, and reliance on artificial intelligence worldwide.
